Thoroughly exciting, unexpected events, which range from god-awful (Sept. 11th. attacks) to glorious (a quiet but worthy book becomes a bestseller) are black swans because prior to the event on one could predict its happening. But economists and others who guess about the future continue to boldly do so. Mr Taleb has a wicked wit that he slyly stirs into the disquieting facts about almost everything that is not factual. I predicted this book to be difficult. Instead, it was like an invigorating shower for my complacent brain. Wonderful.